Bellemont — Convective Outlook

How to read this card

This card summarizes raw atmospheric ingredients from the latest GFS model runs, not a storm or precipitation forecast. CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) measures instability — fuel available for storm updrafts. CIN (Convective Inhibition) measures the “cap” that can suppress storms even when CAPE is present. PWAT (Precipitable Water) is the total column moisture available, and dew point is a surface humidity reading. Each ingredient is shown as a range across the most recent GFS runs, along with a plain-language state (Low, Moderate, High, Very High, and similar) and a short read on how the ingredients combine that day.

This is an experimental, prototype product: the state labels use provisional display bins that are not calibrated against observed storm outcomes, and the card does not indicate whether storms will actually develop, where, or when. Lift, timing, and forcing — not shown here — ultimately decide whether available ingredients get used. Treat this as background atmospheric context only, not as precipitation, storm, or watch/warning guidance.