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If rain were money, the precipitation outlook would bring riches to Arizona
In a strange twist of events, the main long-range computer models I track are aligning around a cut-off low pressure system. It should move across the state next week. While the Climate Prediction Center‘s outlook below makes it look like total inundation, the amounts are still a bit up in the air. Half an inch…
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So Much For A Quiet October
Rachel’s long gone, but her leftover moisture kept raining on us for the better part of a week. Here’s where things landed across my network. Then the part that actually matters: how weird this is for October, going back to 1950 at KFLG. The wrap-up Flagstaff got hammered. KFLG sat at 0.00″ for the first…
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So much for 1-2 inches
Since Friday, my Anthem location has only picked up 0.27 inches of rain. Here’s how that stacks up: I called for 1-2 inches in this spot a couple days ago, and the HRRR, GFS, IFS and ICON were all leaning that direction too. So what happened? Rachel’s moisture never organized over the low desert the…
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What is more important? Lots of wind, or lots of rain?
With Hurricane/Tropical Storm Rachel coming to Arizona, here’s the question: what’s more important, wind or rain? Below are the HRRR precipitation outlook over 48 hours, and the wind outlook on Sunday afternoon. Also, there’s an animated GIF of the GFS, IFS and ICON precipitation totals through Wednesday morning. Wind seems more broadly spread than the…
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That’s a bunch of alarming colors!
Hurricane Rachel is coming to the Southwest! This afternoon’s model runs of IFS, ICON and GFS are all aligning around a strong moisture surge for Saturday evening through next Wednesday. One of the prettiest precipitation forecasts in a long time!
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The NZI Is Warm This Year. I’m Not Sure How Much That Matters.
I want to bring up a number I haven’t used or mentioned before: New Zealand Index (NZI). NZI is a sea-surface temperature and pressure signal from the ocean northeast of New Zealand, used by some researchers to forecast Southwest winter precipitation. I wrote up the full mechanics in a new encyclopedia entry if you want…
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The Models Agree Something’s Coming. They Don’t Agree On When.
GFS, IFS, ICON and NBM are all pointing at the same thing. Something wet is coming for Arizona early next week. Exactly when, and how much, keeps moving around from run to run.
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What the analogs actually say about this winter
Is this El Niño winter actually going to be wet? The analogs say yes, except for one month. Here’s the breakdown, December and all.
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Polo and Odalys Made It Rain. The Models Never Agreed How Much.
Hurricane Polo made landfall as a Category 2 near Las Barrancas, Baja California Sur on Tuesday, 110 mph winds, then crossed the Gulf of California into Sonora. Odalys had already come apart by then, but its leftover moisture tagged along with Polo’s, and the combined plume pushed north into Arizona. NWS Flagstaff had a Flood…
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Every model just lined up on this one
As rain falls over most of Arizona, The picture for Wednesday just got a lot more consistent. GFS, ECMWF, and ICON, all off this morning’s 06z run and valid at the same hour, Wednesday at noon, now agree on a wide band of moderate to heavy rain covering essentially all of Arizona and New Mexico,…
