Flagstaff / KFLG — 10-Day Precipitation Outlook

How to read this chart

Each card is one forecast day. The top bar shows the chance of measurable precipitation that day, from NOAA's National Blend of Models (NBM) — a probability of precipitation, or “PoP,” scaled 0–100%. The rows below it show how much precipitation (in inches) each forecast model expects on that day: NBM, GFS, IFS (the European model), and ICON (the German model). An NBM amount is only shown when that day's PoP is above 20% — below that threshold, a specific rainfall amount from NBM isn't considered meaningful, so it's left blank rather than implying false precision.

The outlook blends near-term detail with a full 10-day horizon by lining up each model's forecast to the closest matching day (a “nearest” time match, rather than smoothing between forecast steps). Models disagree more the further out the forecast goes, so treat later days as a general trend rather than a precise forecast, and expect the picture to sharpen as each day gets closer.