1–3 day precipitation timing and convective potential • Updated every 6 hours
All Locations Fire-Weather Outlook • Other locations: Flagstaff / KFLGMunds ParkAnthem
The top panel shows hour-by-hour precipitation for the next 1–3 days from HRRR, this product’s model. HRRR’s own forecast extends about 48 hours from its latest run, so day 3 of the window shown here is beyond HRRR’s own horizon and is shaded “beyond model horizon” rather than left blank — an empty, shaded stretch there always means HRRR has no forecast for that time, never that it’s predicting a dry hour. The ingredient summary below the chart is affected the same way: day 3 often shows no ingredient read at all, which is that same honest horizon gap, not a data error.
The ingredient strip below the chart summarizes each day’s peak CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy, storm fuel), CIN (Convective Inhibition, the “cap” suppressing storms), PWAT (Precipitable Water, total column moisture), and dew point, all from HRRR guidance, using the same Low/Moderate/High state labels as this site’s Convective Outlook product for a consistent read across both. These are provisional display bins, not calibrated forecast skill — they describe raw atmospheric ingredients, not whether storms will actually form.
HRRR reports precipitation and terrain-sensitive fields at its native grid resolution (roughly 3 km), sampled at the nearest grid point to each site’s coordinates — not adjusted for the difference between that grid point’s modeled terrain height and the site’s true elevation. In steep terrain like the transition from desert floor to forested peaks around these sites, that mismatch mostly affects temperature- dependent fields; it does not meaningfully change modeled precipitation amount or timing, since that’s driven by upslope moisture flux rather than a simple function of elevation. No correction is applied here for that reason.
See the Fire-Weather Outlook for this same location’s humidity, wind, and HDW (Hot-Dry-Windy) guidance.