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Short-Range Outlook — Model Comparison

HRRR • RRFS • REFS • Page generated: July 28, 2026, 6:02 PM MST (July 29, 2026, 1:02 AM UTC)

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Experimental tool — not a forecast product This page compares raw forecast-model output across forecast cycles for a broader set of sites than the main outlook pages. It is a model-comparison and QA visualization, not a validated forecast product: nothing shown here has been checked against observed outcomes. Treat it as a look at how the models behave, not a prediction of what will happen.

How to Read This Page

Each heatmap compares how one model has forecast daily precipitation for one site across every forecast cycle it's run recently. The x-axis is the forecast cycle (when the run started); the y-axis is the actual calendar day being forecast for; color is that cycle's predicted total precipitation for that day. Reading across a row shows how the forecast for one specific day changed as it got closer — whether a model was consistent about a coming rain event from run to run, or whether its guess swung around before settling down. This is a model-comparison and QA tool, not a forecast in its own right — for the actual outlook, see the per-location Short-Range Outlook pages.

This product launched with HRRR, RRFS, and REFS all fetching live — RRFS and REFS are brand new NOAA modeling systems still in pre-operational testing, so their heatmaps here will start as a thin sliver of cells and fill in over the coming days and weeks as more forecast cycles accumulate, the same way every other heatmap on this site did.

HRRR

8 of 8 sites reporting • up to 14 forecast cycle(s) accumulated so far

Flagstaff / KFLG
Flagstaff / KFLG
Munds Park
Munds Park
Bellemont
Bellemont
Anthem 0.9 NE
Anthem 0.9 NE
Carefree 13.2 W
Carefree 13.2 W
Cave Creek 9.8 W
Cave Creek 9.8 W
Anthem 2.8 E (local)
Anthem 2.8 E (local)
Anthem (model point)
Anthem (model point)

RRFS Experimental

8 of 8 sites reporting • up to 15 forecast cycle(s) accumulated so far

Flagstaff / KFLG
Flagstaff / KFLG
Munds Park
Munds Park
Bellemont
Bellemont
Anthem 0.9 NE
Anthem 0.9 NE
Carefree 13.2 W
Carefree 13.2 W
Cave Creek 9.8 W
Cave Creek 9.8 W
Anthem 2.8 E (local)
Anthem 2.8 E (local)
Anthem (model point)
Anthem (model point)

REFS Experimental

8 of 8 sites reporting • up to 14 forecast cycle(s) accumulated so far

Flagstaff / KFLG
Flagstaff / KFLG
Munds Park
Munds Park
Bellemont
Bellemont
Anthem 0.9 NE
Anthem 0.9 NE
Carefree 13.2 W
Carefree 13.2 W
Cave Creek 9.8 W
Cave Creek 9.8 W
Anthem 2.8 E (local)
Anthem 2.8 E (local)
Anthem (model point)
Anthem (model point)