Currently precipitable water amounts, the water hanging over our heads as water vapor, are running around 2 inches. Plenty of moisture is over Arizona. Still, several computer models are not agreeing on how much could fall in any of the locations I track. The GFS model is leading the way with Flagstaff precipitation nearing 1 inch on Thursday and Friday. While the others, IFS, NBM and ICON are all staying in the 0.1-0.2 inch range. A huge difference.
For Anthem, Arizona, another location that is subject to terrain effects because of Daisy Mountain, is looking at similar disagreements. For instance, Thursday’s outlook from the ICON model approaches 1 inch. The GFS offers up about 1/2 inches, with NBM and IFS staying around 0.1 inch.
I feel like we are sitting in the Splash Zone at Sea World. We will get wet. We may get SOAKED.
Enjoy! Hopefully, this will help us glide into a rainy fall and winter.