Quietly last week, my seasonal outlook tool updated itself. Nothing dramatic, no push notification, just a chart that shifted color. But if you’re eyeing an Arizona Snowbowl season pass, it’s worth a look before you swipe your card.
Here’s the setup. This winter we’ve got a negative PDO, a positive AMO, and a weak El Niño that’s still strengthening. That exact combo has only happened 5 times in the last 76 years, and 4 of those 5 turned into above-normal winters. Zero landed “near normal.” It was either a big year or a dry one, and the odds skewed big. More details and background on the analysis are available on the seasonal outlook tool webpage.
The numbers back it up (heads up, these are inches of water precipitation, not snowfall. The two aren’t the same thing, and precipitation is what the outlook actually tracks). Normal for the season is around 7.5″ of water equivalent, but the median across those five analog years was 12.77″, nearly double. Even the driest of the five (4.72″) wasn’t far off the all-time record low, so this pattern hasn’t historically produced a disaster winter either way.
Small sample size, so take it as a lean, not a promise. But four-for-five is a lean worth paying attention to. Still, there is chance for a dry winter. We will have more clarity by mid-October, after season pass price increases.
Which brings me to the actual reason I’m writing this now instead of in November. Snowbowl’s early-bird pass pricing ends September 25, six days from today. After that, prices go up. Current rates:
- Power Pass (unlimited): $1,049 adult, $649 youth, $849 senior
- 12-Day Power Pass: $699 / $349 / $499
- 4-Day Power Pass: $449 / $299 / $399
- Kids 12 and under: free
- 75+: free
If the odds play out like they have historically, a pass bought this week beats paying full lift-ticket price later while everyone else scrambles for pow days.