Since Friday, my Anthem location has only picked up 0.27 inches of rain. Here’s how that stacks up: I called for 1-2 inches in this spot a couple days ago, and the HRRR, GFS, IFS and ICON were all leaning that direction too.
So what happened? Rachel’s moisture never organized over the low desert the way the models wanted it to. The higher terrain caught some of it. Anthem didn’t get the memo.
The bigger push is still ahead, though. The National Blend has Monday at 90% PoP and Tuesday at 92%, tapering to 60% Wednesday. Models are still showing something like an inch and a half blended across those three days, if it verifies.
Given how round one went, I’m not holding my breath. We’ll see.