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What is more important? Lots of wind, or lots of rain?

With Hurricane/Tropical Storm Rachel coming to Arizona, here’s the question: what’s more important, wind or rain? Below are the HRRR precipitation outlook over 48 hours, and the wind outlook on Sunday afternoon. Also, there’s an animated GIF of the GFS, IFS and ICON precipitation totals through Wednesday morning.

HRRR total precipitation forecast for Arizona, valid through Monday October 12 at 12z
HRRR total QPF, 48-hour run, valid Monday Oct 12 12z. Source: Pivotal Weather
HRRR surface pressure and wind forecast for Arizona, valid Sunday October 11 at 21z
HRRR surface pressure and 10m wind, valid Sunday Oct 11 21z. Source: Pivotal Weather

Wind seems more broadly spread than the rain. Still, the next day will bring windy and wet conditions. Flagstaff and Anthem locations could see 1-2 inches, strongly dependent on terrain and orographic effects, due to the rapid movement of Rachel across the area.

Animated comparison of GFS, IFS and ICON total QPF forecasts for Arizona, valid Wednesday October 14, 2026
Animated comparison of GFS, IFS and ICON total QPF, valid Wednesday Oct 14 12z. Source: Pivotal Weather

See the 10-day outlooks, or the short-range outlooks at skyislandsclimate.net for the location details.